Howdy All, a few Interesting Items for your information. Enjoy –
In this issue –
1. Iran
2. 12th Imam
3. Testify
4. Rare Earths
5. Noem
6. Salary
7. Vino
1. Iran The war in Iran continued last week. Its success entirely in the eye of the beholder, though Iranian response with missiles and drones against their neighbors is down 90% depending on whose BS numbers you believe. Most strikingly, nobody in the world other than democrats and their supporters in the US media have stepped up to support Iran, though Russia reportedly is providing targeting information for their missile strikes. There are some reports that the Kurds are starting a ground campaign in the north. There are some reports that Iranian citizens are passing along targeting information on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij and law enforcement to US and Israeli for targeting. There is at least one report of Iranian internal security not starting to show up for work anymore. Sadly, there are also reports of machine gun fire from that Iranian security into apartment building windows suspected of having residents who hold anti-Regime views. Note that they have killed so many protesters, that they have run out, expanding the killing fields to friends, families, and people they might have passed on the streets. There is also a report of the IRGC being deployed to mosques and other public facilities in some cities. Remember that in a theocracy, a mosque is a government building, which is why the Mullahs have no problem with using them for military activities or shields against attack.
- One of the things that led to the war was Iranian intransigence during the last round of negotiations, when they showed up on day 1 with claims of 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, enough to build 11 bombs. They were uninterested in US offers to provide nuclear fuel for their power reactors in perpetuity, relying instead on their ability to build enough missiles and drones quickly enough so that it would no longer be militarily feasible to start a shooting war with them because the US and Israel would fear the massive response.
- Early reports of Kharg Island being hit during the first day off the war were wrong. The only Iranian oil shipping terminal is undamaged and operational, though Iranian refineries used to supply IRGC sales and government use were targeted over the weekend. As a result, oil prices have spiked and will spike for a while. There is some speculation that the US will put a team on the ground to seize Kharg Island, putting the US in complete charge of Iranian oil shipments. No word on how many offshore oil platforms were targeted during the first week of strikes.
- Oil is a real big deal in this war, as most of Iran’s oil was sold to China at below market prices. That flow of oil to China has been shut down, much like the flow of Venezuelan oil to China after Maduro was captured a couple months ago. Both of these serve to remove oil sales from the worldwide marketplace, in turn jacking up global oil prices as they are all connected. The only way to respond is to increase the total amount of cheap oil in the international marketplace. One response over the weekend was by the US to remove sanctions on the sale of Russian oil starting with India. Cheap Russian oil will end up being sold to China and Europe at market prices, yet another economic slap at China who purchased said oil at grossly friendly prices. The volume of new Russian oil in the global marketplace will quickly truncate the current spike in oil prices. As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to oil shipping mostly due to refusal of insurers to pay policies under the excuse of threat of drone strikes on the tankers.
- One of the fun stories out of the war is the use of cheap copies of Iranian drones against Iran. A small company in Arizona called SpektreWorks copied the Iranian designed Shahed-136 drone, equipped it with a radar and Starlink terminal. Iran sells these for $80,000 apiece. The Low-Cost Uncrewed Attack System (LUCAS) copies cost around $35,000 apiece. Best of all, they have been improved, are fully networked, and can be retargeted inflight.
- We saw the first war related terror attack of the war, this one by a naturalized immigrant from Senegal. His Property of Allah sweatshirt was a nice touch. He got into the country Mar 2000, got his green card in 2006 and became a citizen under O’Bama in 2013. He attacked a bar in Austin at 2 AM, killing 3, injuring 15. Police shot him. Note that Texas law prohibits firearms in bars, meaning it was (and is) a free fire zone. The perp had an Iranian shrine in his apartment. Austin DA threatened manslaughter charges against the two cops but quickly backed off following public outrage. Note that the partial democrat shutdown of DHS continues after this attack. I suppose the only good news is that this dummy was the first., a week after the war began of millions the Biden democrats waved into the country 2021 – 2015.
- Final story is what comes afterwards. The concern is that this will be another in nearly 3 decades of forever wars in the Middle East. This is not the Trump way of war. Most recent example is what is going on in Venezuela after Maduro. The US took control of the oil patch down there and has resumed production and oil sales. Money from the oil sales is going into an account that goes back to Venezuela rather than into the Swiss Bank accounts of its leadership and is being used to rebuild the country following its decades long dalliance with socialism.
2. 12th Imam. One of the big questions out of the war with Iran is why the barrage of missiles and drones to all neighboring nations? I would submit that was the plan all along, only they intended to use nukes on as many of those weapons as possible. How can I say that? Easy. These guys are apocalyptics, and they are intentionally trying to trigger the apocalypse to force the return of the 12th Imam (their Christ). How does this work? First, the appropriately weasel worded caveat: I am only a humble blogger. Worse, I didn’t stay in a Holiday Inn last night.
- All western religions steal from what was around before. Coming last as a major western religion, Islam had a lot to choose from. They have Revelations (the apocalypse), their Christ (12th Imam). One of their really smart choices was to choose a tithe a quarter that of the Christian tithe of 10%. Christianity also co-opted major religions including Spring Solstice (Easter) and Winter Solstice (Christ birth). Halloween is a relatively recent addition, starting as an ancient celebration of the end of harvest and the start of winter.
- The Shia branch of Islam believes in 12 Imams, 12 infallible leaders who led Islam after Mohammed’s death 599 – 874 AD (note the parallel with the 12 Christian Disciples). The first 11 died. The 12th, Muhammad ibn al-Hassan (Al-Mahdi) was born in 869 AD, disappeared, but is still alive, supposed to return in the end of time to establish peace and justice and redeem Islam. The 12 Imam believers, Twelvers, aim to force Armageddon to bring the 12th Imam back to earth.
- The difference is that Christians await the return of Christ and the end of the world, while the Twelvers intend to force it. The Iranian mullahs were going to start a nuclear war to make this happen as soon as they had enough deliverable weapons. This was going to happen regardless, and it explains why they were given doomsday weapon orders to launch everything and keep launching until they run out of munitions or people. It is never a good idea to allow apocalyptics the methods and means to pave their way into Paradise.
3. Testify. There was some concern last week following the appearance of Bill and Hilary Clinton before the House Oversight Committee that their appearance sets the precedent for drag both Trump and Melania before congress should democrats take control of one or both houses of congress using Epstein as an excuse. I would suggest that is all but guaranteed, along with our weekly impeachment. The problem is that In Trump’s case, it’s been a case of “there, done that,” as he was dragged through near continuous trials 2022 – 2024 in an attempt to keep him out of running for president in 2024. That worked really, really well (/sarc). Should democrats include Melania in the festivities, I couldn’t think of worse optics. Difficult to build a winning message taking the under in every single 80-20% issue out there.
4. Rare Earths. One of Trump’s conclusions about rare earths is that it is not about the amount of minerals available, it is rather about the cost of processing them. The supply chain barely exists outside China. That is changing, as Trump steps up to solve the problem. Last week’s example comes out of Oilprice.com, with a piece about REAlloys in Saskatchewan. The company operates a facility in Euclid, OH with an offtake agreement between USDoE, DoW and Saskatchewan Research Council, to build and operate a modern processing plant. They claim to use AI to assist, something that may or may not be a positive sales point. In any case, the separation and control systems are fully automated. A typical Chinese plant needs manpower, normally a couple hundred people on slave wages. This one needs perhaps 20% of that number. The initial plant was a small pilot, with 25 – 30% capacity. At full production, it is expected to produce 460 tons of metals yearly. New DoW rules will ban all Chinese sourced rare earth metals from the US defense supply chain Jan 2027. Of course, it is all well and good to come up with processing solutions to Chinese control of the supply chain, but we really do need to quit cutting off our nose to spite our faces. While the Trump administration continues to be all in on mining and processing, DoJ lawyers continue to defend the EPA pre-emptive veto of the Pebble Mine issued in 2023 during the Biden regime. The left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.
5. Noem. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was fired last week. She will serve until Mar 31 to be replaced by OK senior US Senator Markwayne Mullin who will need to be confirmed. Noem will then serve as Special Envoy to Trump’s new Shield of the Americas. First job for this group of western Hemisphere nations will be cartels. Noem had a pretty bad couple months, mostly due to the PR disaster the Milwaukee riots protests ended up being. She testified before congress last week and was excoriated by both sides with accusations of crony contracts for a $200+ million ad buy featuring her, an affair with Cory Lewinowsky, and lying to Trump. While some to all of those may be true, it does appear that there was sufficient smoke that Trump decided to however reluctantly change directions. Final thought is that if Trump was truly displeased with her, she wouldn’t be appointed to another position in his administration.
6. Salary. As a reminder that democrats view public service as a trough to fatten themselves at, we have last week’s example from Virginia and NY. The newly ensconced democrat majority in the VA legislature is moving legislation to increase their salaries by as much as $50,000 yearly. To bring along public support, they are also including a minimum wage increase to $15.hour and a 2% increase in teacher pay, which should tie up support from the Usual Suspects on their side of the political aisle. Not to be outdone, the NY State Assembly having raised their pay by 29% in 2022 are back at it again, with another proposal to raise their pay another 26.8% up to a whopping $180,000/year by 2028
7. Vino. Wine drinkers, beware, as your world is shrinking. The reason is because the Boomers, who fueled the rise of the wine industry, are dying off, and no longer consume the volume produced. Subsequent generations are not as interested in alcohol. This is not a problem unless you are interested in maximum available vino varieties. Rather, it is a demonstration of how the world is changing. GenZ and the millennials are not nearly as interested, though they are slowly adopting wine. In Cali, things like tariffs and wildfires have hurt vino sales. Recent persuasion of alcohol as poison (thank you Scott Adams) has successfully negatively impacted vino as a poison. Persuasion response to this worldview is that alcohol is widely imbibed in the animal kingdom by everything from elephants to butterflies. If it were truly a poison, why do so many participate?
More later –
- AG